{"F": {"ts_code": "688378.SH", "name": "奥来德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200903", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.09, "pe_ttm": 49.7667, "pb": 5.2397, "dv_ttm": 0.4706, "total_mv": 1100338.6668, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.5, 55.5, 54.6, 56.5, 51.2, 49.0], "rev_series": [2.8, 4.1, 4.6, 5.2, 5.3, 5.8], "np_series": [0.7, 1.4, 1.1, 1.2, 0.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [7.1, 8.4, 6.8, 7.1, 5.1, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 54.6, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 23.6, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.2, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.24, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 20.7, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 95.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": -13.8, "rev_yoy": 64.1, "np_yoy": 551.0, "np_vol": 42.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 32.6, "fwd_pe2": 25.3, "fwd_g1": 53.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["蒸发源设备", 57.0], ["有机发光材料", 26.0], ["其他功能材料", 8.0], ["OLED其他功能材料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.7, "ret_prev2_year": -31.9, "ret_ytd": 55.3, "ret_pivot": 291.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": -7.4, "ret_120": 10.3, "ret_250": 102.1, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 66.1, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 67, "hard": 58, "bondness": 50}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 551%,PE TTM 49.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 32.6 倍,PEG 1.12。", "自由现金流 0.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 29%(8 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 36%、毛利率 54.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 102%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -7% / 10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "奥来德:PE 比行业中位低 11.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 35.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}