{"F": {"ts_code": "688376.SH", "name": "美埃科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.35, "pe_ttm": 79.2099, "pb": 4.2324, "dv_ttm": 0.2406, "total_mv": 843295.5965, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 26.9, 27.8, 27.2, 29.6, 25.9], "rev_series": [9.0, 11.5, 12.3, 15.1, 17.2, 19.3], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 1.2, 1.7, 1.9, 1.2], "roe_series": [26.5, 26.6, 12.7, 11.1, 11.2, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.7, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 27.2, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 4.23, "capex_dep": 3.91, "interest_debt": 9.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 50.6, "debt_mv": 11.7, "payout": 16.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.3, "np_cagr3": -0.5, "rev_yoy": 15.5, "np_yoy": -14.9, "np_vol": 26.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 29.3, "fwd_pe2": 21.7, "fwd_g1": 170.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["风机过滤单元,过滤器产品及洁净室天花板及墙壁系统", 25.0], ["过滤器", 25.0], ["其他主营业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 74.5, "ret_prev2_year": -11.5, "ret_ytd": 8.1, "ret_pivot": 146.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.2, "ret_60": -19.4, "ret_120": 10.1, "ret_250": 23.6, "mdd_250": -51.0, "vol_250": 75.9, "pos_52w": 52.0}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 54, "hard": 31, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 79.2 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 29.3 倍,次年 21.7 倍,PEG 0.84。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 3.91 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 79.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -19% / 10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "美埃科技:PE 比行业中位高 45.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点。"]}}