{"F": {"ts_code": "688375.SH", "name": "国博电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 73.17, "pe_ttm": 107.8653, "pb": 6.9096, "dv_ttm": 0.5822, "total_mv": 4361041.0233, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 34.7, 30.7, 32.3, 38.6, 42.1], "rev_series": [22.1, 25.1, 34.6, 35.7, 25.9, 23.9], "np_series": [3.1, 3.7, 5.2, 6.1, 4.8, 5.1], "roe_series": [12.6, 15.6, 12.7, 10.4, 8.0, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.0, "np_ttm": 4.0, "ocf_ttm": 9.7, "fcf_ttm": 6.8, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 34.7, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 17.0, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.1, "fix_assets": 17.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.91, "capex_dep": 1.19, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 22.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 50.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -11.7, "np_cagr3": -0.8, "rev_yoy": -17.2, "np_yoy": -51.3, "np_vol": 20.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 76.0, "fwd_pe2": 59.0, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 2.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["T/R组件和射频模块", 82.0], ["射频芯片", 14.0], ["其他芯片", 3.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.0, "ret_prev2_year": -6.7, "ret_ytd": -21.1, "ret_pivot": 120.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": -21.8, "ret_120": -34.4, "ret_250": 16.0, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 71.0, "pos_52w": 43.3}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 56, "hard": 34, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 107.9 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.7%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.19 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 107.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -22% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "国博电子:PE 比行业中位高 28.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点。"]}}