{"F": {"ts_code": "688370.SH", "name": "丛麟科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220825", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.38, "pe_ttm": 80.3359, "pb": 1.2204, "dv_ttm": 0.8915, "total_mv": 320558.2702, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.2, 49.0, 44.8, 37.2, 34.9, 25.1], "rev_series": [6.7, 6.7, 7.3, 6.3, 6.0, 5.3], "np_series": [2.3, 1.9, 1.7, 0.9, 0.9, 0.2], "roe_series": [26.4, 16.7, 8.6, 3.2, 3.4, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 37.2, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.4, "fix_assets": 9.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 12.7, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 56.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.5, "np_cagr3": -49.0, "rev_yoy": -3.3, "np_yoy": 294.5, "np_vol": 28.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 50.8, "fwd_pe2": 35.4, "fwd_g1": 58.0, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 1.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["无害化处置", 58.0], ["资源化利用", 41.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.8, "ret_prev2_year": -19.8, "ret_ytd": -3.2, "ret_pivot": 55.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": 15.3, "ret_120": -9.1, "ret_250": -23.6, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 50, "hard": 50, "bondness": 48}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 80.3 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%、固定资产占比 31%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 80.3 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 15% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "丛麟科技:PE 比行业中位高 54.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.5个百分点。"]}}