{"F": {"ts_code": "688368.SH", "name": "晶丰明源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191014", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 146.61, "pe_ttm": 280.861, "pb": 5.948, "dv_ttm": 0.4846, "total_mv": 2988012.9609, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 47.9, 17.6, 25.7, 37.1, 38.8], "rev_series": [11.0, 23.0, 10.8, 13.0, 15.0, 15.7], "np_series": [0.7, 6.8, -2.1, -0.9, -0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [5.8, 42.8, -12.0, -6.3, -2.5, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.9, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 37.1, "gm_std": 10.6, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -7.9, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": -2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.6, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 30.2, "pb_calc": 5.95, "capex_dep": 1.52, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 19.2, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 500.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 13.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 98.5, "np_yoy": 449.1, "np_vol": 350.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 97.7, "fwd_pe2": 59.8, "fwd_g1": 187.0, "fwd_g2": 64.0, "peg": 1.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["LED照明驱动芯片", 15.0], ["充电及其他电源管理芯片", 13.0], ["电机驱动控制芯片", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.8, "ret_prev2_year": 15.7, "ret_ytd": 79.4, "ret_pivot": 343.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.5, "ret_60": -21.9, "ret_120": 64.5, "ret_250": 102.0, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 78.7, "pos_52w": 65.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 3, "bondness": 48}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 281 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 37.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.1%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.52 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 280.9 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 102%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / -22% / 64%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "晶丰明源:PE 比行业中位高 199.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点。"]}}