{"F": {"ts_code": "688367.SH", "name": "工大高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.93, "pe_ttm": 378.0564, "pb": 4.448, "dv_ttm": 0.3675, "total_mv": 262260.4278, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.0, 38.2, 36.3, 33.3, 27.0, 27.5], "rev_series": [2.1, 2.5, 3.0, 2.3, 3.0, 2.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.2, 0.3, 0.1], "roe_series": [18.6, 14.3, 9.4, 3.5, 4.5, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 33.3, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.7, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.45, "capex_dep": 4.02, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 20.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 43.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.1, "np_cagr3": -41.8, "rev_yoy": -7.2, "np_yoy": -41.1, "np_vol": 38.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["信息系统集成及技术服务", 25.0], ["矿井井下信号控制与智能调度产品", 16.0], ["地面工业铁路信号控制与智能调度产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 103.8, "ret_prev2_year": -13.6, "ret_ytd": -3.0, "ret_pivot": 168.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": -13.8, "ret_120": -14.5, "ret_250": 46.8, "mdd_250": -49.1, "vol_250": 63.9, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 32, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 378.1 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.3%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 4.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 378.1 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 47%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -14% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "工大高科:PE 比行业中位高 351.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点。"]}}