{"F": {"ts_code": "688365.SH", "name": "光云科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.8048, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 656061.3873, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.2, 64.1, 60.8, 63.2, 65.5, 70.0], "rev_series": [5.1, 5.5, 4.9, 4.8, 4.8, 5.6], "np_series": [0.9, -0.6, -1.8, -0.2, -0.8, -0.3], "roe_series": [10.1, -5.3, -18.1, -1.9, -8.3, -2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.0, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 64.1, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": -12.4, "roe_median": -5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 19.3, "pb_calc": 6.8, "capex_dep": 3.86, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 44.9, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.1, "np_yoy": 196.1, "np_vol": 166.0, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 307.8, "fwd_pe2": 171.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 80.0, "peg": 3.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电商SaaS产品", 47.0], ["SaaS产品", 47.0], ["配套硬件", 3.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.2, "ret_prev2_year": 3.9, "ret_ytd": -8.8, "ret_pivot": 163.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.1, "ret_60": -13.3, "ret_120": -23.0, "ret_250": -15.7, "mdd_250": -63.0, "vol_250": 77.5, "pos_52w": 45.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 72, "hard": 21, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 64.1%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 64.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 3.86 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -13% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "光云科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 36.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点。"]}}