{"F": {"ts_code": "688362.SH", "name": "甬矽电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路封测", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 58.6, "pe_ttm": 292.5949, "pb": 6.9337, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2655892.054, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 32.3, 21.9, 13.9, 17.3, 16.6], "rev_series": [7.5, 20.5, 21.8, 23.9, 36.1, 44.0], "np_series": [0.3, 3.2, 1.4, -0.9, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [9.7, 38.6, 7.0, -3.7, 2.7, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.0, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 18.0, "fcf_ttm": -7.2, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 17.3, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 65.7, "fix_assets": 117.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.93, "capex_dep": 2.28, "interest_debt": 95.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 70.4, "debt_mv": 35.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 26.4, "np_cagr3": -16.0, "rev_yoy": 20.0, "np_yoy": 29.8, "np_vol": 439.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 122.7, "fwd_pe2": 79.2, "fwd_g1": 138.0, "fwd_g2": 55.0, "peg": 2.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["扁平无引脚封装产品", 20.0], ["系统级封装产品", 19.0], ["高密度细间距凸点倒装产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.8, "ret_prev2_year": 28.6, "ret_ytd": 80.8, "ret_pivot": 249.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.0, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": 49.8, "ret_250": 43.7, "mdd_250": -55.0, "vol_250": 82.7, "pos_52w": 51.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 15}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 66%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 63%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 2.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 292.6 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 83%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -8% / 50%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "甬矽电子:PE 比行业中位高 211.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 54.3个百分点。"]}}