{"F": {"ts_code": "688361.SH", "name": "中科飞测", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230519", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 299.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 20.7678, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 10554509.966, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.1, 49.0, 48.7, 52.6, 48.9, 49.9], "rev_series": [2.4, 3.6, 5.1, 8.9, 13.8, 20.5], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.1, 1.4, -0.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [10.5, 10.2, 2.1, 9.4, -0.5, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.9, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -6.1, "fcf_ttm": -12.1, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 49.0, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 7.5, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.9, "fix_assets": 11.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 20.77, "capex_dep": 9.32, "interest_debt": 7.8, "debt_ebitda": 25.7, "debt_ratio": 38.9, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 59.2, "np_cagr3": 70.9, "rev_yoy": 34.0, "np_yoy": -594.3, "np_vol": 462.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 353.1, "fwd_pe2": 163.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 115.0, "peg": 3.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["检测设备", 34.0], ["量测设备", 14.0], ["服务及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 74.7, "ret_prev2_year": 17.8, "ret_ytd": 96.0, "ret_pivot": 531.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.6, "ret_60": 40.9, "ret_120": 83.1, "ret_250": 203.2, "mdd_250": -32.9, "vol_250": 77.9, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 22, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.0%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 9.32 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 203%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / 41% / 83%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "中科飞测:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}