{"F": {"ts_code": "688360.SH", "name": "德马科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.66, "pe_ttm": 41.9045, "pb": 2.5806, "dv_ttm": 0.7503, "total_mv": 386651.1962, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 20.1, 21.6, 23.1, 28.1, 29.0], "rev_series": [7.7, 14.8, 15.3, 13.8, 14.6, 16.9], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [10.6, 8.4, 8.5, 7.6, 6.8, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 7.2, "ocf_yield": 10.6, "gm_median": 23.1, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.0, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 8.2, "pb_calc": 2.58, "capex_dep": 4.03, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 61.5, "debt_mv": 15.9, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.3, "np_cagr3": 5.2, "rev_yoy": 19.2, "np_yoy": -3.5, "np_vol": 4.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 29.3, "fwd_pe2": 22.6, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.0, "ret_prev2_year": 31.9, "ret_ytd": -30.7, "ret_pivot": 81.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": -29.8, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": -37.4, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 53.5, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 45, "hard": 16, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.9 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.1%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.2%(经营现金流/市值 10.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.1%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 4.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.9 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -30% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "德马科技:PE 比行业中位低 8.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点。"]}}