{"F": {"ts_code": "688359.SH", "name": "三孚新科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210521", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 89.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 12.3863, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 892336.2552, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.5, 31.2, 29.9, 32.2, 38.3, 36.2], "rev_series": [2.9, 3.8, 3.6, 5.0, 6.2, 4.6], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, -0.3, -0.4, -0.1, -0.5], "roe_series": [19.2, 12.8, -6.3, -7.7, -2.5, -8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.7, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 32.2, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -10.7, "npm_median": -7.0, "roe_median": -6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.7, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 7.7, "pb_calc": 12.39, "capex_dep": 0.38, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 21.2, "debt_ratio": 45.1, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 50.1, "np_yoy": 152.0, "np_vol": 127.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 69.4, "fwd_pe2": 44.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 56.0, "peg": 1.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.8, "ret_prev2_year": -42.7, "ret_ytd": 34.4, "ret_pivot": 255.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.4, "ret_60": -38.4, "ret_120": 5.3, "ret_250": 35.1, "mdd_250": -62.8, "vol_250": 76.6, "pos_52w": 41.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 25, "bondness": 27}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.2%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -38% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "三孚新科:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.2个百分点。"]}}