{"F": {"ts_code": "688356.SH", "name": "键凯科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200826", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 79.8, "pe_ttm": 113.7064, "pb": 3.7252, "dv_ttm": 0.3875, "total_mv": 483992.586, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [86.0, 85.2, 84.8, 81.2, 69.2, 63.3], "rev_series": [1.9, 3.5, 4.1, 2.9, 2.3, 3.2], "np_series": [0.9, 1.8, 1.9, 1.2, 0.3, 0.6], "roe_series": [15.9, 18.4, 16.4, 9.2, 2.3, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 81.2, "gm_std": 8.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 39.6, "roe_median": 9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.73, "capex_dep": 2.69, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 5.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.9, "np_cagr3": -30.9, "rev_yoy": 42.7, "np_yoy": -86.8, "np_vol": 73.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["销售产品", 46.0], ["技术使用费", 4.0], ["运输服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.0, "ret_prev2_year": -46.4, "ret_ytd": -2.6, "ret_pivot": 76.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.1, "ret_60": 17.7, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": -18.7, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 66.0, "pos_52w": 59.8}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 78, "hard": 51, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 113.7 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 81.2%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 32%、毛利率 81.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 81.2%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 113.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 18% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "键凯科技:PE 比行业中位高 76.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 28.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}