{"F": {"ts_code": "688355.SH", "name": "明志科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210512", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.28, "pe_ttm": 40.6778, "pb": 2.0208, "dv_ttm": 2.881, "total_mv": 214196.1408, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.4, 34.4, 27.6, 29.0, 32.5, 35.0], "rev_series": [6.1, 7.1, 6.1, 5.3, 6.3, 5.3], "np_series": [1.2, 1.2, 0.4, 0.1, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [29.8, 16.1, 3.5, 1.4, 6.2, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 10.8, "ocf_yield": 11.4, "gm_median": 32.5, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -11.8, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.02, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 29.0, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 92.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.7, "np_cagr3": 29.2, "rev_yoy": -16.1, "np_yoy": -62.4, "np_vol": 155.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["铸件类产品", 27.0], ["铸件产品", 27.0], ["装备类", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.5, "ret_prev2_year": -14.6, "ret_ytd": -0.1, "ret_pivot": 41.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.3, "ret_60": -0.1, "ret_120": -19.1, "ret_250": -12.7, "mdd_250": -37.5, "vol_250": 47.2, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 52, "hard": 30, "bondness": 73}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 40.7 倍、股息率 2.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.5%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.8%(经营现金流/市值 11.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.7 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -0% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "明志科技:PE 比行业中位低 9.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}