{"F": {"ts_code": "688353.SH", "name": "华盛锂电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 81.84, "pe_ttm": 43.5804, "pb": 3.5755, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1305348.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.4, 62.1, 46.8, 11.3, -19.4, 10.1], "rev_series": [4.4, 10.1, 8.6, 5.3, 5.0, 8.7], "np_series": [0.8, 4.2, 2.6, -0.2, -1.7, 0.1], "roe_series": [13.9, 51.2, 10.6, -0.6, -4.9, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.1, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.5, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 11.3, "gm_std": 29.0, "gm_stab": -1.56, "gm_chg_2022": 7.4, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": 0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.3, "fix_assets": 20.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.58, "capex_dep": 2.73, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 22.3, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 0.3, "np_cagr3": -63.0, "rev_yoy": 126.5, "np_yoy": 451.5, "np_vol": 347.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 14.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.8, "fwd_g1": 212.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["VC", 70.0], ["FEC", 21.0], ["其他主营", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 386.3, "ret_prev2_year": -13.7, "ret_ytd": -28.0, "ret_pivot": 445.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.2, "ret_60": 0.7, "ret_120": -27.6, "ret_250": 125.5, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 90.2, "pos_52w": 58.8}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 17, "hard": 68, "bondness": 22}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 -156%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 -156%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.6 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 126%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 90%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / 1% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "华盛锂电:PE 比行业中位高 7.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点。"]}}