{"F": {"ts_code": "688351.SH", "name": "微电生理", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.42, "pe_ttm": 148.1801, "pb": 4.7791, "dv_ttm": 0.114, "total_mv": 866845.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.6, 72.4, 69.1, 63.5, 58.7, 58.0], "rev_series": [1.4, 1.9, 2.6, 3.3, 4.1, 4.6], "np_series": [0.1, -0.1, 0.0, 0.1, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [1.4, -2.0, 0.3, 0.3, 3.0, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 63.5, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 0.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.2, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.78, "capex_dep": 2.54, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 10.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 19.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 21.3, "np_cagr3": 158.1, "rev_yoy": 23.0, "np_yoy": 22.7, "np_vol": 369.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 131.6, "fwd_pe2": 93.3, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 3.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["导管类产品", 31.0], ["其他收入", 10.0], ["其他产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.6, "ret_prev2_year": -25.8, "ret_ytd": -20.4, "ret_pivot": 12.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.1, "ret_60": -24.7, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": -28.7, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 43.3, "pos_52w": 67.0}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 68, "hard": 15, "bondness": 8}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 148.2 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(15 篇研报)前瞻 PE 131.6 倍,次年 93.3 倍,PEG 3.21。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 63.5%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.54 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 148.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -25% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "微电生理:PE 比行业中位高 109.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点。"]}}