{"F": {"ts_code": "688350.SH", "name": "富淼科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.9, "pe_ttm": 886.5888, "pb": 2.0867, "dv_ttm": 0.2708, "total_mv": 385327.974, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.1, 19.8, 18.5, 14.6, 13.3, 17.4], "rev_series": [11.3, 14.5, 17.0, 16.4, 15.7, 13.9], "np_series": [1.0, 1.1, 1.3, 0.3, -0.0, 0.2], "roe_series": [11.2, 9.1, 8.9, 1.8, -0.3, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.8, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.9, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.09, "capex_dep": 1.28, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 36.6, "debt_mv": 13.3, "payout": 85.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": -50.9, "rev_yoy": -1.2, "np_yoy": -53.0, "np_vol": 194.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["水溶性高分子", 25.0], ["功能性单体", 19.0], ["能源外供", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 104.5, "ret_prev2_year": -22.6, "ret_ytd": 4.9, "ret_pivot": 182.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.1, "ret_60": -15.5, "ret_120": -5.6, "ret_250": 17.7, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 61.0, "pos_52w": 67.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 64, "bondness": 62}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 886.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -16% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "富淼科技:PE 比行业中位高 850.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点。"]}}