{"F": {"ts_code": "688349.SH", "name": "三一重能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电整机", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.84, "pe_ttm": 27.8229, "pb": 1.4644, "dv_ttm": 2.212, "total_mv": 2045843.8092, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 28.6, 23.6, 17.0, 16.9, 9.7], "rev_series": [93.1, 101.7, 123.2, 149.4, 177.9, 273.8], "np_series": [13.7, 15.9, 16.5, 20.1, 18.1, 7.1], "roe_series": [252.5, 53.6, 21.9, 16.7, 13.7, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 294.5, "np_ttm": 7.4, "ocf_ttm": -49.0, "fcf_ttm": -58.8, "fcf_yield": -28.7, "ocf_yield": -24.0, "gm_median": 17.0, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 16.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.9, "fix_assets": 61.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.46, "capex_dep": 1.5, "interest_debt": 45.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 68.4, "debt_mv": 22.5, "payout": 39.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 30.5, "np_cagr3": -24.4, "rev_yoy": 24.0, "np_yoy": 11.0, "np_vol": 29.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 12.1, "fwd_pe2": 7.8, "fwd_g1": 131.0, "fwd_g2": 55.0, "peg": 0.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["风力发电机组制造", 30.0], ["6.XMW及以上", 24.0], ["5.XMW及以下", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.7, "ret_prev2_year": 10.5, "ret_ytd": -33.0, "ret_pivot": -20.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.2, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": -41.8, "ret_250": -41.5, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 38.2, "pos_52w": 52.0}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 34, "hard": 22, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.8 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -28.7%(经营现金流/市值 -24.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.50 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.8 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -5% / -42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "三一重能:PE 比行业中位低 4.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.4个百分点。"]}}