{"F": {"ts_code": "688345.SH", "name": "博力威", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 52.61, "pe_ttm": 58.038, "pb": 4.2278, "dv_ttm": 0.3763, "total_mv": 535950.1703, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.0, 20.2, 17.6, 15.8, 16.6, 18.1], "rev_series": [14.3, 22.2, 23.0, 22.3, 18.4, 27.4], "np_series": [1.2, 1.3, 1.1, -0.3, -1.0, 0.6], "roe_series": [33.0, 16.0, 9.4, -2.8, -8.8, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.5, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 5.2, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.5, "fix_assets": 9.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.23, "capex_dep": 1.73, "interest_debt": 3.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 64.2, "debt_mv": 7.1, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": -20.3, "rev_yoy": 30.5, "np_yoy": 101.2, "np_vol": 119.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 32.7, "fwd_pe2": 17.3, "fwd_g1": 78.0, "fwd_g2": 89.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["轻型车用锂离子电池", 31.0], ["车用锂离子电池产品总成", 31.0], ["电池", 10.0], ["消费电子类电池", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.5, "ret_prev2_year": -42.5, "ret_ytd": 69.7, "ret_pivot": 308.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": 10.8, "ret_120": 27.7, "ret_250": 78.0, "mdd_250": -36.8, "vol_250": 66.6, "pos_52w": 84.7}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 44, "hard": 42, "bondness": 35}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 101%,PE TTM 58.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 32.7 倍,PEG 0.37。", "自由现金流 1.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 89%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.73 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 58.0 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 78%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 11% / 28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "博力威:PE 比行业中位高 22.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}