{"F": {"ts_code": "688338.SH", "name": "赛科希德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "体外诊断", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.57, "pe_ttm": 38.5734, "pb": 1.9027, "dv_ttm": 0.8331, "total_mv": 324477.3168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.1, 60.1, 62.3, 62.9, 61.4, 61.7], "rev_series": [2.2, 2.4, 2.3, 2.8, 3.1, 2.6], "np_series": [0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 0.9], "roe_series": [8.0, 7.0, 7.1, 7.5, 7.0, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 61.7, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 40.6, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.0, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.9, "capex_dep": 2.87, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 3.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.8, "np_cagr3": -4.9, "rev_yoy": -4.3, "np_yoy": -11.4, "np_vol": 20.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 35.1, "fwd_pe2": 30.6, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 2.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["仪器及配套试剂耗材", 98.0], ["配件及其他", 2.0], ["资产租赁", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.6, "ret_prev2_year": -27.9, "ret_ytd": 19.3, "ret_pivot": 57.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": 27.5, "ret_120": -5.3, "ret_250": 10.0, "mdd_250": -32.7, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 86.0}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 74, "hard": 27, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.6 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 61.7%、固定资产占比 17%、资产负债率 4%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.7%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.6 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 28% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "赛科希德:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点。"]}}