{"F": {"ts_code": "688337.SH", "name": "普源精电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.15, "pe_ttm": 82.0428, "pb": 2.8169, "dv_ttm": 0.9936, "total_mv": 877986.9505, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.9, 50.6, 52.4, 56.4, 59.1, 55.1], "rev_series": [3.5, 4.8, 6.3, 6.7, 7.8, 9.0], "np_series": [-0.3, -0.0, 0.9, 1.1, 0.9, 0.9], "roe_series": [-6.5, -0.5, 5.6, 4.0, 3.0, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.3, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 55.1, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.6, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 9.2, "pb_calc": 2.82, "capex_dep": 0.66, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 11.1, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 90.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.6, "np_cagr3": -2.4, "rev_yoy": 37.2, "np_yoy": 129.1, "np_vol": 981.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 60.0, "fwd_pe2": 41.2, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 1.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.5, "ret_prev2_year": -10.3, "ret_ytd": 10.0, "ret_pivot": 73.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.4, "ret_60": -41.5, "ret_120": -7.9, "ret_250": 2.9, "mdd_250": -52.8, "vol_250": 64.3, "pos_52w": 51.0}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 69, "hard": 30, "bondness": 46}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 82.0 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(8 篇研报)前瞻 PE 60.0 倍,次年 41.2 倍,PEG 1.30。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.1%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -42% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "普源精电:PE 比行业中位高 31.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}