{"F": {"ts_code": "688331.SH", "name": "荣昌生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 124.24, "pe_ttm": 12.0468, "pb": 8.4352, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 7013068.46, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.2, 95.2, 64.8, 77.4, 80.4, 87.3], "rev_series": [0.0, 14.3, 7.7, 10.8, 17.2, 32.5], "np_series": [-7.0, 2.8, -10.0, -15.1, -14.7, 7.1], "roe_series": [-41.5, 7.8, -23.7, -35.9, -54.1, 25.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 80.1, "np_ttm": 58.2, "ocf_ttm": 45.1, "fcf_ttm": 43.6, "fcf_yield": 6.2, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 80.4, "gm_std": 10.2, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 40.5, "npm_median": -85.5, "roe_median": -23.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.4, "fix_assets": 29.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.44, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.6, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 61.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 433.1, "np_yoy": 1137.1, "np_vol": 222.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 58.0, "earn_yield": 8.3, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 18.0, "fwd_pe2": 84.5, "fwd_g1": -33.0, "fwd_g2": -79.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["技术授权", 38.0], ["销售商品", 12.0], ["提供劳务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 158.4, "ret_prev2_year": -51.5, "ret_ytd": 59.7, "ret_pivot": 450.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": 18.1, "ret_120": 10.9, "ret_250": 51.2, "mdd_250": -36.4, "vol_250": 69.9, "pos_52w": 81.1}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 82, "hard": 47, "bondness": 0}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 58.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 12 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 80.4%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 80.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 40.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.0 倍 粗算,约 58%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 51%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 18% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "荣昌生物:PE 比行业中位低 20.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}