{"F": {"ts_code": "688329.SH", "name": "艾隆科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.41, "pe_ttm": 133.3243, "pb": 2.2372, "dv_ttm": 1.1103, "total_mv": 173005.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.0, 59.6, 52.8, 53.3, 45.1, 49.2], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.9, 4.8, 3.6, 3.3, 4.4], "np_series": [0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, -0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [16.5, 15.2, 12.5, 3.6, -2.8, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 52.8, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 2.13, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 42.0, "debt_mv": 10.2, "payout": 119.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": -43.4, "rev_yoy": 42.2, "np_yoy": -66.6, "np_vol": 118.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.5, "ret_prev2_year": -45.1, "ret_ytd": 6.5, "ret_pivot": 89.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.3, "ret_60": 1.2, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": 0.3, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 44.7, "pos_52w": 82.6}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 62, "hard": 51, "bondness": 70}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 4 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 52.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.5%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 96%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 52.8% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 133.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 1% / -14%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "艾隆科技:PE 比行业中位高 55.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.1个百分点。"]}}