{"F": {"ts_code": "688328.SH", "name": "深科达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210309", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 75.4, "pe_ttm": 109.1299, "pb": 8.1146, "dv_ttm": 0.2122, "total_mv": 712200.502, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.6, 33.0, 33.4, 34.8, 27.3, 33.2], "rev_series": [6.5, 9.1, 5.9, 5.6, 5.1, 6.7], "np_series": [0.7, 0.6, -0.4, -1.2, -1.1, 0.2], "roe_series": [17.2, 9.1, -4.8, -14.3, -12.5, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.5, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": -5.1, "roe_median": -4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.9, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 8.11, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 43.9, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 61.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.0, "np_yoy": 198.2, "np_vol": 124.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 61.4, "fwd_pe2": 28.8, "fwd_g1": 78.0, "fwd_g2": 114.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["半导体设备", 29.0], ["半导体类设备", 29.0], ["智能显示装备", 25.0], ["核心零部件", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.8, "ret_prev2_year": -66.8, "ret_ytd": 159.8, "ret_pivot": 551.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": 12.1, "ret_120": 70.1, "ret_250": 176.2, "mdd_250": -51.5, "vol_250": 89.6, "pos_52w": 63.8}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 53, "hard": 30, "bondness": 44}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 109 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 44%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.2%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 109.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 176%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 90%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 12% / 70%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "深科达:PE 比行业中位高 66.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点。"]}}