{"F": {"ts_code": "688326.SH", "name": "经纬恒润", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220419", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.62, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9872, "dv_ttm": 0.4567, "total_mv": 739022.8326, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 30.9, 29.0, 25.6, 21.5, 23.4], "rev_series": [24.8, 32.6, 40.2, 46.8, 55.4, 68.5], "np_series": [0.7, 1.5, 2.3, -2.2, -5.5, 1.0], "roe_series": [7.7, 10.2, 6.9, -4.2, -12.0, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.6, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": -3.0, "fcf_ttm": -10.1, "fcf_yield": -13.6, "ocf_yield": -4.1, "gm_median": 25.6, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.3, "fix_assets": 21.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 5.06, "interest_debt": 16.9, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 63.1, "debt_mv": 22.9, "payout": 33.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 19.4, "np_cagr3": -24.7, "rev_yoy": -9.8, "np_yoy": -339.3, "np_vol": 131.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 31.2, "fwd_pe2": 17.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 81.0, "peg": 0.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["电子产品业务", 31.0], ["电子产品", 31.0], ["研发服务及解决方案业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.9, "ret_prev2_year": -27.6, "ret_ytd": -47.4, "ret_pivot": -4.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": -13.9, "ret_120": -50.2, "ret_250": -43.1, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 54.3, "pos_52w": 41.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 32, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 63%,有息负债 17 亿,经营现金流/市值 -4.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.6%(经营现金流/市值 -4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 5.06 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -14% / -50%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "经纬恒润:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点。"]}}