{"F": {"ts_code": "688325.SH", "name": "赛微微电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 107.84, "pe_ttm": 104.5738, "pb": 5.521, "dv_ttm": 1.1732, "total_mv": 932453.9488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.4, 62.3, 57.4, 55.7, 52.5, 53.7], "rev_series": [1.8, 3.4, 2.0, 2.5, 3.9, 4.9], "np_series": [0.3, 0.9, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0], "roe_series": [38.3, 52.7, 5.5, 3.6, 4.6, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 55.7, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 24.0, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.2, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.52, "capex_dep": 13.82, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 10.9, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 111.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 34.7, "np_cagr3": 23.3, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": -20.8, "np_vol": 71.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["芯片", 50.0], ["产品", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 82.3, "ret_prev2_year": 28.9, "ret_ytd": 25.1, "ret_pivot": 292.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -20.1, "ret_120": -10.8, "ret_250": 79.6, "mdd_250": -33.3, "vol_250": 70.3, "pos_52w": 71.5}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 66, "hard": 15, "bondness": 47}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 104.6 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.7%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 13.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 104.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 80%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -20% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "赛微微电:PE 比行业中位高 23.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}