{"F": {"ts_code": "688323.SH", "name": "瑞华泰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210428", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.74, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.091, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 495785.3942, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.4, 44.9, 38.3, 26.6, 19.0, 18.3], "rev_series": [3.5, 3.2, 3.0, 2.8, 3.4, 3.9], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.4, -0.2, -0.6, -0.9], "roe_series": [10.1, 7.5, 4.1, -1.9, -5.9, -10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.3, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 26.6, "gm_std": 10.6, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": -7.1, "roe_median": -1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.9, "fix_assets": 18.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.08, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 10.2, "debt_ebitda": 8.7, "debt_ratio": 54.0, "debt_mv": 20.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 24.0, "np_yoy": -15.9, "np_vol": 71.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["高性能PI薄膜", 95.0], ["其他薄膜类", 2.0], ["其他PI薄膜及加工", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 83.2, "ret_prev2_year": -42.8, "ret_ytd": 9.9, "ret_pivot": 168.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.9, "ret_60": -38.4, "ret_120": 9.6, "ret_250": 45.4, "mdd_250": -68.5, "vol_250": 94.3, "pos_52w": 35.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 100, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 54%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 71%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.6%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.6%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 71%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 45%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 94%,现价在 52 周高点的 36%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -38% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "瑞华泰:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 39.0个百分点。"]}}