{"F": {"ts_code": "688322.SH", "name": "奥比中光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 92.17, "pe_ttm": 347.94, "pb": 9.5278, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3805097.4299, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.3, 47.6, 43.6, 42.6, 41.8, 43.8], "rev_series": [2.6, 4.7, 3.5, 3.6, 5.6, 9.4], "np_series": [-6.2, -3.1, -2.9, -2.8, -0.6, 1.3], "roe_series": [-35.6, -13.2, -10.5, -8.8, -2.1, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 43.6, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -12.7, "npm_median": -70.8, "roe_median": -8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.7, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 9.53, "capex_dep": 3.09, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 9.5, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 39.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": -30.8, "np_vol": 110.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 130.7, "fwd_pe2": 75.7, "fwd_g1": 166.0, "fwd_g2": 73.0, "peg": 1.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["传感器", 32.0], ["3D视觉传感器", 32.0], ["整机及方案", 31.0], ["服务及其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 92.8, "ret_prev2_year": 23.7, "ret_ytd": 2.8, "ret_pivot": 328.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.6, "ret_60": -26.0, "ret_120": 14.2, "ret_250": 3.8, "mdd_250": -46.1, "vol_250": 64.9, "pos_52w": 62.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 17, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 348 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 10%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.6%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 3.09 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 347.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -26% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "奥比中光:PE 比行业中位高 286.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.7个百分点。"]}}