{"F": {"ts_code": "688320.SH", "name": "禾川科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220428", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.69, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.9779, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 493663.7853, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.9, 36.5, 30.4, 29.4, 26.2, 22.2], "rev_series": [5.4, 7.5, 9.4, 11.2, 8.1, 10.2], "np_series": [1.1, 1.1, 0.9, 0.5, -1.7, -1.3], "roe_series": [23.8, 19.1, 8.3, 3.4, -11.4, -10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.1, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 29.4, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -12.4, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.4, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.98, "capex_dep": 0.6, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 47.1, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 37.4, "np_yoy": 159.5, "np_vol": 161.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工控产品", 48.0], ["机床", 1.0], ["其他收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.1, "ret_prev2_year": -4.9, "ret_ytd": -12.4, "ret_pivot": 48.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": -9.0, "ret_120": -0.1, "ret_250": -36.4, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 52.2, "pos_52w": 63.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 39, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.60 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -9% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "禾川科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点。"]}}