{"F": {"ts_code": "688318.SH", "name": "财富趋势", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 88.87, "pe_ttm": 106.0443, "pb": 8.3191, "dv_ttm": 0.3054, "total_mv": 3186587.5951, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [86.7, 86.6, 83.7, 85.5, 86.0, 82.8], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.3, 3.2, 4.3, 3.9, 3.7], "np_series": [2.4, 2.8, 1.5, 3.1, 3.0, 3.2], "roe_series": [12.4, 9.4, 4.9, 9.4, 8.6, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 85.5, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 78.1, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.32, "capex_dep": 17.63, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 4.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 33.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": 27.1, "rev_yoy": -8.7, "np_yoy": -13.9, "np_vol": 48.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 62.4, "fwd_pe2": 54.6, "fwd_g1": 70.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 4.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["软件服务收入", 18.0], ["证券信息服务收入", 14.0], ["证券信息服务", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.7, "ret_prev2_year": 92.1, "ret_ytd": -5.7, "ret_pivot": 97.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.4, "ret_60": 38.0, "ret_120": 8.7, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 55.8, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 82, "hard": 6, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 106.0 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 62.4 倍,次年 54.6 倍,PEG 4.46。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 85.5%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 85.5%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 17.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 106.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 38% / 9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "财富趋势:PE 比行业中位高 23.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 36.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点。"]}}