{"F": {"ts_code": "688314.SH", "name": "康拓医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.39, "pe_ttm": 30.1099, "pb": 3.4368, "dv_ttm": 1.6487, "total_mv": 256231.2337, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [82.9, 82.6, 81.5, 81.2, 80.0, 78.7], "rev_series": [1.6, 2.1, 2.4, 2.8, 3.2, 3.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [24.0, 21.8, 14.5, 13.4, 14.5, 14.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.5, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 81.2, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 27.8, "roe_median": 14.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.0, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 6.2, "pb_calc": 3.44, "capex_dep": 5.92, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 19.2, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 34.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.5, "np_cagr3": 9.2, "rev_yoy": 0.4, "np_yoy": -24.7, "np_vol": 22.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 21.5, "fwd_pe2": 17.8, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["PEEK材料神经外科产品", 31.0], ["钛材料神经外科产品", 8.0], ["其他收入", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.5, "ret_prev2_year": -11.4, "ret_ytd": -4.1, "ret_pivot": 43.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.0, "ret_60": -19.3, "ret_120": -26.2, "ret_250": -20.1, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 51.6, "pos_52w": 55.7}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 81, "hard": 40, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.1 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 81.2%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 81.2%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 81.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 5.92 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -19% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "康拓医疗:PE 比行业中位低 8.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}