{"F": {"ts_code": "688313.SH", "name": "仕佳光子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 141.62, "pe_ttm": 136.0862, "pb": 37.2813, "dv_ttm": 0.2118, "total_mv": 6401029.9806, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 25.3, 25.2, 18.6, 26.3, 33.2], "rev_series": [6.7, 8.2, 9.0, 7.5, 10.7, 21.3], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.6, -0.5, 0.6, 3.7], "roe_series": [4.2, 4.3, 5.3, -4.1, 5.6, 27.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.3, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.9, "fix_assets": 6.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 37.28, "capex_dep": 2.95, "interest_debt": 8.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 48.3, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 39.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 33.1, "np_cagr3": 79.6, "rev_yoy": 50.7, "np_yoy": 45.3, "np_vol": 219.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 83.8, "fwd_pe2": 47.3, "fwd_g1": 62.0, "fwd_g2": 77.0, "peg": 1.09, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光芯片及器件：光纤连接器", 28.0], ["光纤连接器", 28.0], ["光芯片及器件：AWG相关产品", 14.0], ["AWG芯片系列产品", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 452.0, "ret_prev2_year": 29.8, "ret_ytd": 60.1, "ret_pivot": 1663.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.9, "ret_60": -6.5, "ret_120": 74.3, "ret_250": 99.1, "mdd_250": -58.7, "vol_250": 90.1, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 48, "hard": 30, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 136.1 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(15 篇研报)前瞻 PE 83.8 倍,次年 47.3 倍,PEG 1.09。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.95 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 136.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 99%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 90%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -6% / 74%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "仕佳光子:PE 比行业中位高 51.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点。"]}}