{"F": {"ts_code": "688309.SH", "name": "恒誉科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200714", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 79.69, "pe_ttm": 59.6295, "pb": 7.5365, "dv_ttm": 0.2133, "total_mv": 632748.9597, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.9, 47.0, 42.5, 54.6, 41.2, 31.4], "rev_series": [1.7, 0.8, 1.7, 1.6, 1.5, 3.0], "np_series": [0.5, -0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [9.8, -1.3, 2.1, 2.5, 2.4, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.8, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 42.5, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -9.5, "npm_median": 11.1, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.7, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 7.54, "capex_dep": 4.24, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 13.4, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 40.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 21.4, "np_cagr3": 31.7, "rev_yoy": 149.6, "np_yoy": 865.6, "np_vol": 123.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 41.1, "fwd_pe2": 21.6, "fwd_g1": 45.0, "fwd_g2": 91.0, "peg": 0.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["裂解生产线", 71.0], ["运营项目及服务", 14.0], ["裂解后产品及服务", 14.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.5, "ret_prev2_year": -37.8, "ret_ytd": 232.6, "ret_pivot": 666.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.8, "ret_60": 22.3, "ret_120": 46.5, "ret_250": 189.5, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 58.5, "pos_52w": 91.7}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 54, "hard": 56, "bondness": 16}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 59.6 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 42.5%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 42.5%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 4.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 190%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 22% / 46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "恒誉科技:PE 比行业中位高 25.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点。"]}}