{"F": {"ts_code": "688307.SH", "name": "中润光学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.06, "pe_ttm": 75.3713, "pb": 6.1306, "dv_ttm": 0.7926, "total_mv": 560021.9016, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.6, 31.6, 32.7, 33.6, 33.9, 32.5], "rev_series": [3.3, 4.0, 4.0, 3.8, 4.5, 6.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [11.3, 11.2, 11.7, 6.0, 6.3, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.1, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 32.7, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 2.1, "npm_median": 10.2, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.3, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 3.6, "pb_calc": 6.13, "capex_dep": 5.22, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 34.7, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 73.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.7, "np_cagr3": 15.3, "rev_yoy": 61.8, "np_yoy": 54.7, "np_vol": 19.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 28.7, "fwd_pe2": 20.3, "fwd_g1": 163.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["特种安防与智慧监控领域", 18.0], ["智慧城市监控产品", 18.0], ["先进制造及检测领域", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.9, "ret_prev2_year": -22.4, "ret_ytd": 47.4, "ret_pivot": 280.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -28.7, "ret_120": 14.9, "ret_250": 80.1, "mdd_250": -61.7, "vol_250": 80.6, "pos_52w": 48.2}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 59, "hard": 56, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 75.4 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 35%、毛利率 32.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 5.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 80%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -29% / 15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "中润光学:PE 比行业中位高 13.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点。"]}}