{"F": {"ts_code": "688306.SH", "name": "均普智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220322", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.56, "pe_ttm": 729.2646, "pb": 6.0965, "dv_ttm": 0.0924, "total_mv": 1051410.0768, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.5, 18.4, 21.4, 17.2, 19.2, 21.9], "rev_series": [16.9, 21.4, 20.0, 21.0, 26.6, 25.6], "np_series": [-0.5, 0.4, 0.4, -2.1, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [-10.0, 8.7, 3.4, -10.8, 0.5, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.6, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 19.2, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.1, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 16.1, "pb_calc": 6.1, "capex_dep": 1.91, "interest_debt": 10.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 58.7, "debt_mv": 9.9, "payout": 79.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": -33.9, "rev_yoy": 19.1, "np_yoy": 7.9, "np_vol": 274.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 29.0], ["汽车工业智能制造装备", 21.0], ["汽车工业智能制造装备：新能源汽车专用零部件智能制", 10.0], ["新能源汽车专用零部件智能制造装备", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.7, "ret_prev2_year": 39.2, "ret_ytd": -26.2, "ret_pivot": 127.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.8, "ret_60": 2.2, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -32.6, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 49.8, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 27, "bondness": 49}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 729.3 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.91 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 729.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 2% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "均普智能:PE 比行业中位高 651.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}