{"F": {"ts_code": "688305.SH", "name": "科德数控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210709", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.45, "pe_ttm": 100.5589, "pb": 3.9275, "dv_ttm": 0.373, "total_mv": 748293.297, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.2, 43.1, 42.4, 46.0, 42.9, 39.5], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.5, 3.2, 4.5, 6.1, 5.5], "np_series": [0.4, 0.7, 0.6, 1.0, 1.3, 0.9], "roe_series": [6.6, 10.7, 6.6, 9.4, 8.8, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 42.9, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 21.4, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.2, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.93, "capex_dep": 5.02, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 22.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 20.5, "np_cagr3": 13.6, "rev_yoy": -27.4, "np_yoy": -28.9, "np_vol": 51.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 62.3, "fwd_pe2": 48.3, "fwd_g1": 61.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 2.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["高端数控机床", 31.0], ["高档数控机床", 31.0], ["关键功能部件", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.4, "ret_prev2_year": -10.6, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 28.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": -14.7, "ret_120": -9.5, "ret_250": -9.2, "mdd_250": -31.2, "vol_250": 42.6, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 62, "hard": 36, "bondness": 13}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 100.6 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 42.9%、固定资产占比 22%、资产负债率 18%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.9%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 5.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 100.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -15% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "科德数控:PE 比行业中位高 50.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点。"]}}