{"F": {"ts_code": "688302.SH", "name": "海创药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.38, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0841, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 310710.9528, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, 53.6, null, 8.4, 98.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 0.0, null, 0.0, 0.2], "np_series": [-4.9, -3.1, -3.0, -2.9, -2.0, -1.4], "roe_series": [-103.1, -34.5, -25.4, -19.9, -15.6, -12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.6, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -5.3, "ocf_yield": -3.5, "gm_median": 53.6, "gm_std": 36.8, "gm_stab": 0.31, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -18264.5, "roe_median": -19.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.5, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.08, "capex_dep": 9.87, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 20.9, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 317.5, "np_yoy": 9.1, "np_vol": 15.7, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 130.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["药品销售", 33.0], ["药品", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.1, "ret_prev2_year": -41.0, "ret_ytd": -36.2, "ret_pivot": 10.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.6, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": -49.7, "mdd_250": -50.3, "vol_250": 50.4, "pos_52w": 49.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 46, "bondness": 13}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 21%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 53.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.3%(经营现金流/市值 -3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.6%,稳定度 31%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 9.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -6% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "海创药业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}