{"F": {"ts_code": "688298.SH", "name": "东方生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "体外诊断", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.6639, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 382032.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [79.2, 73.8, 50.8, 43.0, 31.7, 40.8], "rev_series": [32.7, 101.7, 87.7, 8.2, 8.3, 9.5], "np_series": [16.8, 49.2, 20.7, -4.0, -5.3, -5.7], "roe_series": [124.4, 105.8, 27.5, -5.1, -7.5, -9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.1, "np_ttm": -6.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -10.5, "ocf_yield": -3.0, "gm_median": 43.0, "gm_std": 14.2, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -28.4, "npm_median": -51.0, "roe_median": -5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 26.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.66, "capex_dep": 2.74, "interest_debt": 4.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 15.3, "debt_mv": 11.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -52.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.2, "np_yoy": -36.3, "np_vol": 105.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": -19.1, "ret_pivot": -27.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -18.2, "ret_250": -36.2, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 33.8, "pos_52w": 64.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 60, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -6.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 15%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 43.0%,稳定度 67%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.5%(经营现金流/市值 -3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.0%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -28.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.74 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -2% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "东方生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.9个百分点。"]}}