{"F": {"ts_code": "688295.SH", "name": "中复神鹰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "其他化学纤维", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220406", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.93, "pe_ttm": 226.8992, "pb": 7.3577, "dv_ttm": 0.0848, "total_mv": 3503700.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.0, 41.6, 48.1, 30.6, 14.2, 17.5], "rev_series": [5.3, 11.7, 19.9, 22.6, 15.6, 21.9], "np_series": [0.9, 2.8, 6.1, 3.2, -1.2, 1.0], "roe_series": [10.5, 25.4, 20.7, 6.7, -2.6, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.3, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": -7.9, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 30.6, "gm_std": 13.2, "gm_stab": 0.57, "gm_chg_2022": 5.1, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 65.0, "fix_assets": 66.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.36, "capex_dep": 4.53, "interest_debt": 33.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.7, "debt_ratio": 53.5, "debt_mv": 9.5, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": -45.8, "rev_yoy": 26.1, "np_yoy": 488.1, "np_vol": 138.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 154.7, "fwd_pe2": 94.6, "fwd_g1": 47.0, "fwd_g2": 64.0, "peg": 2.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["碳纤维", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.7, "ret_prev2_year": -34.1, "ret_ytd": 18.8, "ret_pivot": 135.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.9, "ret_60": -22.2, "ret_120": -13.5, "ret_250": 66.2, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 67.8, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 100, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 226.9 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%、固定资产占比 65%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 65%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%,稳定度 57%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%,稳定度 57%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 65%,资本开支/折旧 4.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 226.9 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 66%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -22% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "中复神鹰:PE 比行业中位高 194.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.4个百分点。"]}}