{"F": {"ts_code": "688293.SH", "name": "奥浦迈", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220902", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 54.62, "pe_ttm": 60.5897, "pb": 2.4725, "dv_ttm": 0.7024, "total_mv": 776664.7204, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.0, 59.9, 64.0, 58.8, 53.0, 50.8], "rev_series": [1.2, 2.1, 2.9, 2.4, 3.0, 3.5], "np_series": [0.1, 0.6, 1.1, 0.5, 0.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [4.1, 11.4, 7.7, 2.5, 1.0, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.3, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 58.8, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 18.0, "npm_median": 21.9, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 15.6, "pb_calc": 2.47, "capex_dep": 0.96, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 16.0, "debt_mv": 3.1, "payout": 142.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.4, "np_cagr3": -26.6, "rev_yoy": 155.2, "np_yoy": 230.3, "np_vol": 172.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 49.0, "fwd_pe2": 35.6, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 38.0, "peg": 1.29, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["细胞培养产品收入", 23.0], ["药物临床前CRO服务", 20.0], ["CDMO服务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.1, "ret_prev2_year": -33.7, "ret_ytd": 11.9, "ret_pivot": 127.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.6, "ret_60": 59.2, "ret_120": 14.7, "ret_250": -5.6, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 61.4, "pos_52w": 80.9}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 73, "hard": 15, "bondness": 57}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 60.6 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(7 篇研报)前瞻 PE 49.0 倍,次年 35.6 倍,PEG 1.29。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.8%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 18.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.96 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / 59% / 15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "奥浦迈:PE 比行业中位高 28.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点。"]}}