{"F": {"ts_code": "688291.SH", "name": "金橙子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.05, "pe_ttm": 60.4283, "pb": 4.3127, "dv_ttm": 0.4638, "total_mv": 441980.1435, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.3, 60.1, 60.5, 58.7, 56.5, 58.2], "rev_series": [1.4, 2.0, 2.0, 2.2, 2.1, 2.5], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [27.0, 23.4, 6.7, 4.6, 3.3, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.5, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 58.7, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 19.1, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.3, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 4.31, "capex_dep": 16.94, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 7.1, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 24.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": -1.9, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": 130.9, "np_vol": 24.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 50.1, "fwd_pe2": 47.1, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 8.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["激光加工控制系统", 19.0], ["激光加工控制系统：中高端振镜控制系统", 13.0], ["中高端振镜控制系统", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 124.8, "ret_prev2_year": -32.5, "ret_ytd": 1.0, "ret_pivot": 204.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": 4.0, "ret_250": 17.1, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 69.8, "pos_52w": 67.5}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 71, "hard": 28, "bondness": 23}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 60.4 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 50.1 倍,次年 47.1 倍,PEG 8.35。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.7%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 16.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.4 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -8% / 4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "金橙子:PE 比行业中位低 22.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}