{"F": {"ts_code": "688289.SH", "name": "圣湘生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "体外诊断", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.98, "pe_ttm": 68.4434, "pb": 1.3135, "dv_ttm": 3.2707, "total_mv": 918750.6044, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [79.6, 71.7, 58.8, 71.5, 77.9, 75.8], "rev_series": [47.6, 45.1, 64.5, 10.1, 14.6, 16.4], "np_series": [26.2, 22.4, 19.4, 3.6, 2.8, 2.0], "roe_series": [98.7, 40.4, 27.9, 4.9, 3.8, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 71.7, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -20.8, "npm_median": 30.0, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 12.8, "goodwill_ratio": 8.3, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 17.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 26.6, "debt_mv": 19.0, "payout": 111.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -36.6, "np_cagr3": -53.2, "rev_yoy": -3.9, "np_yoy": -39.8, "np_vol": 25.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 35.8, "fwd_pe2": 29.6, "fwd_g1": 91.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.9, "ret_prev2_year": 19.7, "ret_ytd": -14.3, "ret_pivot": 3.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 13.5, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": -26.7, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 35.2, "pos_52w": 73.1}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 71, "hard": 21, "bondness": 90}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 68.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(8 篇研报)前瞻 PE 35.8 倍,次年 29.6 倍,PEG 1.70。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 71.7%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 71.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -20.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 14% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "圣湘生物:PE 比行业中位高 29.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点。"]}}