{"F": {"ts_code": "688286.SH", "name": "敏芯股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4771, "dv_ttm": 0.417, "total_mv": 360242.1, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.5, 35.0, 25.8, 16.8, 24.9, 28.0], "rev_series": [3.3, 3.5, 2.9, 3.7, 5.1, 6.2], "np_series": [0.4, 0.1, -0.5, -1.0, -0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [6.2, 1.1, -5.2, -9.7, -3.4, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": -7.0, "roe_median": -3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.8, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 3.48, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 13.8, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 83.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 28.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -18.7, "np_yoy": -181.8, "np_vol": 250.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 63.0, "fwd_pe2": 30.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 105.0, "peg": 0.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["MEMS压力传感器", 53.0], ["MEMS声学传感器", 42.0], ["MEMS惯性传感器", 4.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.2, "ret_prev2_year": -16.0, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": 100.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -8.6, "ret_250": -20.7, "mdd_250": -61.5, "vol_250": 72.1, "pos_52w": 48.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 46, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 14%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 3% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "敏芯股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点。"]}}