{"F": {"ts_code": "688283.SH", "name": "坤恒顺维", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "其他通信设备", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.0, "pe_ttm": 73.3977, "pb": 3.4058, "dv_ttm": 0.9562, "total_mv": 328860.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.5, 63.0, 66.5, 68.0, 55.9, 62.6], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.6, 2.2, 2.5, 2.3, 2.4], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 0.9, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [40.9, 32.7, 15.2, 9.4, 3.8, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.4, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 63.0, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 31.1, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.9, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.41, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 14.8, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.3, "np_cagr3": -16.8, "rev_yoy": -4.4, "np_yoy": -15.4, "np_vol": 38.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.1, "ret_prev2_year": -48.4, "ret_ytd": -32.6, "ret_pivot": 63.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": -22.9, "ret_120": -37.1, "ret_250": -12.0, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 63.3, "pos_52w": 45.7}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 69, "hard": 16, "bondness": 46}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 73.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 63.0%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -23% / -37%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "坤恒顺维:PE 比行业中位低 11.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}