{"F": {"ts_code": "688281.SH", "name": "华秦科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220307", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.5, "pe_ttm": 59.0525, "pb": 4.0616, "dv_ttm": 0.4799, "total_mv": 1965234.335, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.0, 58.8, 61.0, 57.8, 50.7, 43.4], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.1, 6.7, 9.2, 11.4, 12.4], "np_series": [1.5, 2.3, 3.3, 3.4, 4.1, 3.1], "roe_series": [71.7, 55.6, 15.4, 8.4, 9.4, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.6, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 57.8, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 34.5, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.6, "fix_assets": 16.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 4.06, "capex_dep": 3.09, "interest_debt": 9.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 23.8, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 22.8, "np_cagr3": -2.7, "rev_yoy": 42.1, "np_yoy": 17.6, "np_vol": 28.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 33.9, "fwd_pe2": 26.0, "fwd_g1": 74.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品销售及技术服务", 75.0], ["零部件加工", 13.0], ["航空航天零部件加工服务", 13.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.7, "ret_ytd": -1.8, "ret_pivot": 54.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -11.1, "ret_250": 1.5, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 65, "hard": 39, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 59.1 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 57.8%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 57.8%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 3.09 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 6% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "华秦科技:PE 比行业中位低 14.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点。"]}}