{"F": {"ts_code": "688280.SH", "name": "精进电动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211027", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.42, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.7271, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 319900.1072, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [2.2, -3.8, 4.6, -4.6, 5.0, 16.0], "rev_series": [5.8, 7.4, 10.2, 8.7, 13.0, 27.3], "np_series": [-3.8, -4.0, -3.9, -5.8, -4.4, 1.5], "roe_series": [-51.7, -31.3, -21.6, -44.4, -54.7, 22.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.1, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 4.6, "gm_std": 7.5, "gm_stab": -0.62, "gm_chg_2022": 2.4, "npm_median": -38.0, "roe_median": -31.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.4, "fix_assets": 8.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.73, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 4.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 78.2, "debt_mv": 15.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 38.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -30.8, "np_yoy": -597.9, "np_vol": 61.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["新能源汽车电驱动系统", 28.0], ["新能源汽车电机驱动系统", 28.0], ["技术开发及服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 98.2, "ret_prev2_year": -42.8, "ret_ytd": -37.7, "ret_pivot": 50.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": -10.1, "ret_120": -49.6, "ret_250": -36.4, "mdd_250": -61.3, "vol_250": 61.0, "pos_52w": 48.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 12, "hard": 52, "bondness": 8}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.6%,稳定度 -62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.6%,稳定度 -62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -10% / -50%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "精进电动:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点。"]}}