{"F": {"ts_code": "688279.SH", "name": "峰岹科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220420", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 184.02, "pe_ttm": 70.2286, "pb": 4.0477, "dv_ttm": 0.4239, "total_mv": 2118329.6682, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.3, 57.4, 57.4, 53.5, 53.2, 52.6], "rev_series": [2.3, 3.3, 3.2, 4.1, 6.0, 7.7], "np_series": [0.8, 1.4, 1.4, 1.7, 2.2, 2.2], "roe_series": [43.5, 38.2, 10.6, 7.5, 9.0, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.6, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 53.5, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 7.2, "npm_median": 40.9, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.2, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.05, "capex_dep": 49.95, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 2.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 32.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 33.8, "np_cagr3": 15.5, "rev_yoy": 49.6, "np_yoy": 71.0, "np_vol": 26.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 55.2, "fwd_pe2": 38.0, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 1.23, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电机主控芯片MCU", 35.0], ["电机主控芯片ASIC", 7.0], ["电机驱动芯片HVIC", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": 26.0, "ret_ytd": -9.2, "ret_pivot": 75.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.2, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": 9.8, "ret_250": -13.7, "mdd_250": -47.1, "vol_250": 58.8, "pos_52w": 67.4}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 72, "hard": 5, "bondness": 14}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 70.2 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 55.2 倍,次年 38.0 倍,PEG 1.23。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 53.5%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 49.95 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -11% / 10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "峰岹科技:PE 比行业中位低 11.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}