{"F": {"ts_code": "688276.SH", "name": "百克生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "疫苗", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210625", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7443, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 661852.16, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [88.3, 88.3, 87.2, 90.2, 85.4, 73.4], "rev_series": [14.4, 12.0, 10.7, 18.2, 12.3, 6.1], "np_series": [4.2, 2.4, 1.8, 5.0, 2.3, -2.6], "roe_series": [29.9, 9.4, 5.2, 13.2, 5.6, -6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.2, "np_ttm": -2.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 87.2, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 18.9, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.3, "fix_assets": 25.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 4.82, "interest_debt": 4.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 26.1, "debt_mv": 7.1, "payout": 21.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -17.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": 29.2, "np_vol": 123.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 1066.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品", 50.0], ["产品销售", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": -24.4, "ret_prev2_year": -54.2, "ret_ytd": -15.2, "ret_pivot": -25.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": 10.4, "ret_120": -14.9, "ret_250": -36.9, "mdd_250": -46.1, "vol_250": 36.5, "pos_52w": 63.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 83, "hard": 80, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 50%、毛利率 87.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 87.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 4.82 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 10% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "百克生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.2个百分点。"]}}