{"F": {"ts_code": "688275.SH", "name": "万润新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 71.58, "pe_ttm": 22.0417, "pb": 1.608, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 902756.223, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.2, 31.2, 17.1, 0.0, 0.7, 4.8], "rev_series": [6.9, 22.3, 123.5, 121.7, 75.2, 114.9], "np_series": [-0.4, 3.5, 9.6, -15.0, -8.7, -4.6], "roe_series": [-4.4, 28.4, 19.0, -19.8, -14.3, -8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 194.8, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": -21.5, "fcf_ttm": -27.4, "fcf_yield": -30.4, "ocf_yield": -23.8, "gm_median": 4.8, "gm_std": 11.9, "gm_stab": -1.48, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": -4.1, "roe_median": -8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.4, "fix_assets": 82.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 130.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.8, "debt_ratio": 78.5, "debt_mv": 144.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 180.1, "np_yoy": 326.6, "np_vol": 382.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 7.3, "fwd_pe2": 5.3, "fwd_g1": 202.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["磷酸铁锂", 49.0], ["副产品", 1.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.0, "ret_prev2_year": -21.6, "ret_ytd": -5.1, "ret_pivot": 193.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.4, "ret_60": -41.2, "ret_120": -36.4, "ret_250": 51.1, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 70.6, "pos_52w": 43.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 10, "hard": 50, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%,稳定度 -148%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -30.4%(经营现金流/市值 -23.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%,稳定度 -148%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 51%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -41% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "万润新能:PE 比行业中位低 13.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点。"]}}