{"F": {"ts_code": "688270.SH", "name": "ST臻镭", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.72, "pe_ttm": 119.075, "pb": 7.2878, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1698846.8112, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [88.2, 88.5, 88.0, 83.1, 76.2, 75.9], "rev_series": [1.5, 1.9, 2.3, 2.8, 3.0, 4.3], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 0.2, 1.3], "roe_series": [35.1, 24.0, 7.9, 3.5, 0.9, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 83.1, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 30.8, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.1, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.29, "capex_dep": 0.15, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 5.8, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 36.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.6, "np_cagr3": 9.6, "rev_yoy": 7.2, "np_yoy": 14.9, "np_vol": 241.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电源管理芯片", 25.0], ["射频收发芯片及高速高精度ADC/DAC芯片", 14.0], ["微系统及模组", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 248.8, "ret_prev2_year": -28.2, "ret_ytd": -34.9, "ret_pivot": 308.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.9, "ret_60": -28.4, "ret_120": -46.5, "ret_250": 9.2, "mdd_250": -63.4, "vol_250": 84.8, "pos_52w": 36.6}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 81, "hard": 15, "bondness": 13}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 119.1 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 83.1%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 83.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 119.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 85%,现价在 52 周高点的 37%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -28% / -46%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "ST臻镭:PE 比行业中位高 37.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 48.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}