{"F": {"ts_code": "688269.SH", "name": "凯立新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.0, "pe_ttm": 34.8288, "pb": 3.31, "dv_ttm": 1.1111, "total_mv": 352900.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.9, 16.1, 18.0, 12.0, 11.2, 12.0], "rev_series": [10.5, 15.9, 18.8, 17.9, 16.9, 20.3], "np_series": [1.1, 1.6, 2.2, 1.1, 0.9, 1.1], "roe_series": [34.0, 27.6, 24.4, 11.5, 9.3, 10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.6, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_yield": -10.0, "ocf_yield": -7.8, "gm_median": 12.0, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 6.3, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.1, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.31, "capex_dep": 2.16, "interest_debt": 11.2, "debt_ebitda": 7.0, "debt_ratio": 58.2, "debt_mv": 31.7, "payout": 58.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.6, "np_cagr3": -21.0, "rev_yoy": 51.7, "np_yoy": -12.6, "np_vol": 37.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.9, "fwd_pe2": 13.0, "fwd_g1": 106.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["催化剂销售", 46.0], ["催化剂来料加工", 2.0], ["催化剂加工", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.2, "ret_prev2_year": -32.3, "ret_ytd": -32.0, "ret_pivot": 32.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.2, "ret_60": -17.2, "ret_120": -40.0, "ret_250": -33.0, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 41.4, "pos_52w": 55.7}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 42, "hard": 58, "bondness": 59}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.0%(经营现金流/市值 -7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 2.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.8 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -17% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "凯立新材:PE 比行业中位低 1.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点。"]}}